Weekly Economic Update – February 14, 2022

In this week’s recap: Inflation and Ukraine fears present rock and hard place to investors this week.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

A hot inflation print and the growing concern of a Russian invasion of Ukraine sent stocks tumbling late in the week, leaving major indices lower for the five-trading days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 1.00%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 1.82%. The Nasdaq Composite index slumped 2.18%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.26%.1,2,3

A DOUBLE WHAMMY

Mid-week, a fresh batch of positive corporate earnings surprises lifted investor sentiment, helping stocks claw back losses with technology stocks posting some of the sharpest gains. But January’s inflation report, set for release on Thursday morning, remained investors’ biggest concern.

When the report hit, it showed accelerating inflation, and stocks dropped and bond yields bounded higher. Stocks managed to recover from the initial reaction to the unexpectedly high inflation number. But when the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis commented that the Fed may consider a more aggressive move against inflation, stocks resumed their slide lower. The stock skid accelerated into Friday on White House reports that an invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces may be imminent.4

INFLATION SIZZLES

Prices of consumer goods accelerated in January, rising 0.6% from the previous month and 7.5% year-over-year. This annual inflation rate was the highest since 1982. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, was 6.0% higher from last January.5

Many economists and market analysts had expected inflation to moderate, but driven by a surge in prices of used cars, gasoline, and energy, inflation remained at elevated levels. The persistence of inflation at these heights has fueled investor concerns that the Fed might consider a more aggressive 50-basis points increase in short term interest rate.

TIP OF THE WEEK

Sometimes teens confuse wants with needs. Pointing out the difference will help them handle money with more maturity (and it may help you save a dollar or two)

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI).
Wednesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. FOMC Minutes.
Thursday: Housing Starts. Jobless Claims.
Friday: Existing Home Sales. Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

Source: Econoday, February 11, 2022

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Zoetis, Inc.(ZTS), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), Marriott International, Inc. (MAR), ViacomCBS, Inc. (VIAC).
Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), DoorDash (DASH).
Thursday: Roku, Inc. (ROKU), Walmart, Inc. (WMT), The Southern Company (SO).
Friday: Deere & Company (DE).

Source: Zacks, February 11, 2022

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“I imagine one of the reasons people cling to their hates so stubbornly is because they sense, once hate is gone, they will be forced to deal with pain.” JAMES BALDWIN

THE WEEKLY RIDDLE

What is the smallest number of cars that can be driven down the road in this formation: two cars ahead of a car, two cars behind a car, and a car between two cars?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE:

They never move, even when we walk on them, but signs and arrows may indicate that they go “up” and “down.” What are they?

ANSWER:

Stairs

 

Greg R. Solis, AIF®
President and CEO

Bob Medler, CRPC®, CMFC®, AIF®
Wealth Advisor / Investment Analyst

Tiffany Valentine, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
Vice President | Director of Financial Planning

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CITATIONS:

1. The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2022
4. CNBC, February 10, 2022